11/10/2009

Aaron Hill is a Top 5 Second Baseman in the AL East.

This past season Aaron Hill finished 9th in the majors in home runs! That's good! He also finished just inside the top 50 in slugging percentage (min. 350 PA)! That's!... uh, good, I guess. He also finished 165th in on-base percentage! That's... pretty bad actually.

"But, hey!", you might be saying. "Aaron Hill is a second baseman! A lot of those 'substantially better hitters' are first basemen and the like! He provides additionally value by playing a much more difficult defensive position and playing it EXCELLENTLY you asshole!" And you would be exactly right!

In fact, Aaron Hill finished fourth in WAR in 2009! Among second basemen. ...In the AL East. Yeah....

Name.........................................2009 WAR

Ben Zobrist.............................................8.6
Dustin Pedroia.......................................5.2
Robinson Cano.......................................4.4
Aaron Hill................................................4.2
Brian Roberts.........................................3.2

Aaron Hill, in his career year, still couldn't match up to the second basemen of any of the 3 teams ahead of Toronto in the standings this year. Even if you don't trust the accuracy of defensive metrics, I don't think it's a highly controversial statement to say that Aaron Hill is the worst hitter of the 5 going forward. He's the only one of the 5 to have a below average on-base percentage and the only one close to him in that respect, Cano, strikes out less often and has a higher BABIP for his career, meaning his OBP is more likely to be made acceptable by a high batting average.

The thing that really made Hill noticed this year was his power. He hit 36 home runs. The problem is, in order to hit all those homers, he needed, by far, the most at-bats in the American League. As a result of all those extra outs, even with 36 homers Aaron Hill couldn't quite crack a .500 slugging percentage. And he likely never will. Not unless he can drastically improve improve his walk rate, thereby decreasing the number of outs he creates and increases the value of each individual hit.

The bottom line is, when it comes to second base, the Jays are, at best, treading water within the AL East. Over the offseason you will hear a lot of people talk about how "great" Hill is, especially as a hitter. Don't listen to them. He is a good player who allows the Jays to focus on improving the team without worrying about second base, but he isn't any better than any of the other second basemen in the division and he doesn't provide the Jays with any kind of advantage over the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays. If in 3 years people still think Hill is the best hitter on the team, the Jays are in a lot of trouble.